Seeking a Place in the South Atlantic: An Analysis of Brazilian and Chinese Intentions and Capabilities in the Region in the Twenty-First Century

How does the increasing, albeit still modest, Chinese presence in the South Atlantic affect Brazil’s strategic aspirations in the region? In order to answer this question, the chapter is divided into three parts, besides the introduction and the concluding remarks. First, we investigate Brazil’s defense and foreign policies to the region through and analysis of national defense documents. These documents – for instance, the 2020 White Paper – clearly establish the South Atlantic’s strategic significance for Brazil, emphasizing the nation's inherent maritime connection, which naturally positions it as an influential actor in the area. Official texts and academic narratives also support Brazil as a potential leader capable of extending its influence in the region. In the second part of the chapter, we examine the historical context of China’s involvement in the South Atlantic, aiming to understand China's international strategies. In contrast to Brazil, China’s official foreign policy and defense discourse make no reference to the South Atlantic, despite the Asian giant’s significant ties with several nations in this region. However, one could argue that China’s involvement in the region is driven by a perceived grand strategy, focusing on resource-seeking, port investments, security of sea line of communication, and anti-piracy efforts. In light of this, the final part of the chapter proposes a comparative analysis of China’s and Brazil’s capabilities and actions within the region. Overall, our methodology combines qualitative content analysis of official documents from China and Brazil with descriptive statistical analysis of selected indicators related to the military capabilities of both countries. Through this endeavor, we aim to contribute to the current South Atlantic literature by critically examining prevailing assumptions about Brazil's role in the region. We aim to stimulate discussions about Brazil's intentions and its ability to act. Additionally, this chapter expands the discourse on the South Atlantic within the context of shifting international power dynamics, with China’s rise as one of the main issues.